:Product: 1111RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2019 Nov 11 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 315 Issued at 2200Z on 11 Nov 2019

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 10/2100Z to
11/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24
hours. There are currently 0 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low
on days one, two, and three (12 Nov, 13 Nov, 14 Nov).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 10/2100Z to 11/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed reached a peak of 395 km/s at 11/1313Z. Total IMF reached 12
nT at 11/2023Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -11 nT at
11/0948Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a
peak level of 657 pfu.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to active levels on day one (12 Nov) and quiet levels on
days two and three (13 Nov, 14 Nov).

III.  Event probabilities 12 Nov-14 Nov
Class M    01/01/01
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           11 Nov 070
Predicted   12 Nov-14 Nov 070/070/070
90 Day Mean        11 Nov 068

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 10 Nov  002/002
Estimated Afr/Ap 11 Nov  008/010
Predicted Afr/Ap 12 Nov-14 Nov  010/008-006/005-006/005

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 12 Nov-14 Nov
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                30/10/10
Minor Storm           10/01/01
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                15/15/15
Minor Storm           30/15/15
Major-severe storm    40/10/10