:Product: 1119RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2019 Nov 19 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 323 Issued at 2200Z on 19 Nov 2019

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 18/2100Z to
19/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24
hours. There are currently 0 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low
on days one, two, and three (20 Nov, 21 Nov, 22 Nov).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 18/2100Z to 19/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed
reached a peak of 371 km/s at 19/0153Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at
geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 224 pfu.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to active levels on days one and three (20 Nov, 22 Nov)
and quiet to minor storm levels on day two (21 Nov).

III.  Event probabilities 20 Nov-22 Nov
Class M    01/01/01
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           19 Nov 069
Predicted   20 Nov-22 Nov 069/069/069
90 Day Mean        19 Nov 068

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 18 Nov  001/001
Estimated Afr/Ap 19 Nov  003/004
Predicted Afr/Ap 20 Nov-22 Nov  012/016-015/020-014/018

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 20 Nov-22 Nov
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                35/40/30
Minor Storm           20/25/10
Major-severe storm    05/05/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                10/10/15
Minor Storm           25/25/30
Major-severe storm    50/60/40