:Product: 1120RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2019 Nov 20 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 324 Issued at 2200Z on 20 Nov 2019

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 19/2100Z to
20/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24
hours. There are currently 0 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low
on days one, two, and three (21 Nov, 22 Nov, 23 Nov).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 19/2100Z to 20/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed
reached a peak of 359 km/s at 20/1632Z. Total IMF reached 5 nT at
20/1917Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -4 nT at
20/1917Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a
peak level of 235 pfu.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to minor storm levels on day one (21 Nov) and quiet to
active levels on days two and three (22 Nov, 23 Nov).

III.  Event probabilities 21 Nov-23 Nov
Class M    01/01/01
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           20 Nov 070
Predicted   21 Nov-23 Nov 070/070/068
90 Day Mean        20 Nov 068

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 19 Nov  001/001
Estimated Afr/Ap 20 Nov  005/008
Predicted Afr/Ap 21 Nov-23 Nov  015/020-012/016-008/010

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 21 Nov-23 Nov
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                40/30/30
Minor Storm           25/10/05
Major-severe storm    05/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                10/15/15
Minor Storm           25/30/30
Major-severe storm    60/40/35