:Product: 1122RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2019 Nov 22 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 326 Issued at 2200Z on 22 Nov 2019

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 21/2100Z to
22/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24
hours. There are currently 0 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low
on days one, two, and three (23 Nov, 24 Nov, 25 Nov).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 21/2100Z to 22/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to active levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed reached a peak of 653 km/s at 22/0200Z. Total IMF reached 10
nT at 21/2224Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -6 nT at
22/0048Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a
peak level of 553 pfu.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to unsettled levels on days one, two, and three (23 Nov,
24 Nov, 25 Nov).

III.  Event probabilities 23 Nov-25 Nov
Class M    01/01/01
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           22 Nov 070
Predicted   23 Nov-25 Nov 070/070/068
90 Day Mean        22 Nov 068

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 21 Nov  007/008
Estimated Afr/Ap 22 Nov  012/016
Predicted Afr/Ap 23 Nov-25 Nov  009/010-007/008-007/008

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 23 Nov-25 Nov
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                20/10/10
Minor Storm           05/01/01
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                15/15/15
Minor Storm           30/25/25
Major-severe storm    25/20/20