:Product: 1123RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2019 Nov 23 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 327 Issued at 2200Z on 23 Nov 2019

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 22/2100Z to
23/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24
hours. There are currently 0 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low
on days one, two, and three (24 Nov, 25 Nov, 26 Nov).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 22/2100Z to 23/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed reached a peak of 552 km/s at 22/2126Z. Total IMF reached 9
nT at 23/1426Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -7 nT at
23/1318Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a
peak level of 941 pfu.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to unsettled levels on days one, two, and three (24 Nov,
25 Nov, 26 Nov).

III.  Event probabilities 24 Nov-26 Nov
Class M    01/01/01
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           23 Nov 070
Predicted   24 Nov-26 Nov 070/070/070
90 Day Mean        23 Nov 068

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 22 Nov  008/009
Estimated Afr/Ap 23 Nov  009/010
Predicted Afr/Ap 24 Nov-26 Nov  007/008-007/008-006/008

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 24 Nov-26 Nov
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                10/10/10
Minor Storm           01/01/01
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                15/15/15
Minor Storm           25/25/25
Major-severe storm    20/20/20