:Product: 1127RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2019 Nov 27 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 331 Issued at 2200Z on 27 Nov 2019

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 26/2100Z to
27/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24
hours. There are currently 0 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low
on days one, two, and three (28 Nov, 29 Nov, 30 Nov).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 26/2100Z to 27/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed
reached a peak of 432 km/s at 27/0455Z. Total IMF reached 5 nT at
26/2102Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -4 nT at
27/1648Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a
peak level of 1932 pfu.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet levels on days one, two, and three (28 Nov, 29 Nov, 30
Nov).

III.  Event probabilities 28 Nov-30 Nov
Class M    01/01/01
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           27 Nov 071
Predicted   28 Nov-30 Nov 070/070/070
90 Day Mean        27 Nov 068

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 26 Nov  003/001
Estimated Afr/Ap 27 Nov  006/007
Predicted Afr/Ap 28 Nov-30 Nov  005/005-006/005-006/005

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 28 Nov-30 Nov
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                10/10/10
Minor Storm           01/01/01
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                20/20/20
Minor Storm           20/20/20
Major-severe storm    10/10/10