:Product: 0113RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2020 Jan 13 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 13 Issued at 2200Z on 13 Jan 2020

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 12/2100Z to
13/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24
hours. There are currently 0 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low
on days one, two, and three (14 Jan, 15 Jan, 16 Jan).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 12/2100Z to 13/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed
reached a peak of 400 km/s at 13/0837Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at
geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 1362 pfu.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to active levels on days one and two (14 Jan, 15 Jan) and
quiet to unsettled levels on day three (16 Jan).

III.  Event probabilities 14 Jan-16 Jan
Class M    01/01/01
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           13 Jan 072
Predicted   14 Jan-16 Jan 072/072/070
90 Day Mean        13 Jan 070

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 12 Jan  002/001
Estimated Afr/Ap 13 Jan  004/005
Predicted Afr/Ap 14 Jan-16 Jan  010/010-008/010-007/008

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 14 Jan-16 Jan
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                30/30/20
Minor Storm           10/10/05
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                15/15/15
Minor Storm           30/30/30
Major-severe storm    40/40/25