:Product: 0115RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2020 Jan 15 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 15 Issued at 2200Z on 15 Jan 2020

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 14/2100Z to
15/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24
hours. There are currently 0 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low
on days one, two, and three (16 Jan, 17 Jan, 18 Jan).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 14/2100Z to 15/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed
reached a peak of 353 km/s at 15/0222Z. Total IMF reached 7 nT at
15/1958Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -5 nT at
15/0730Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a
peak level of 581 pfu.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet levels on days one, two, and three (16 Jan, 17 Jan, 18
Jan).

III.  Event probabilities 16 Jan-18 Jan
Class M    01/01/01
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           15 Jan 071
Predicted   16 Jan-18 Jan 071/071/071
90 Day Mean        15 Jan 070

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 14 Jan  002/001
Estimated Afr/Ap 15 Jan  004/005
Predicted Afr/Ap 16 Jan-18 Jan  005/005-006/005-006/005

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 16 Jan-18 Jan
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                10/10/15
Minor Storm           01/01/05
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                15/15/15
Minor Storm           20/20/20
Major-severe storm    10/10/20