:Product: 0120RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2020 Jan 20 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 20 Issued at 2200Z on 20 Jan 2020

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 19/2100Z to
20/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24
hours. There are currently 0 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low
on days one, two, and three (21 Jan, 22 Jan, 23 Jan).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 19/2100Z to 20/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed
reached a peak of 332 km/s at 20/0150Z.  Electrons greater than 2 MeV at
geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 212 pfu.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to active levels on day one (21 Jan), quiet to unsettled
levels on day two (22 Jan) and quiet levels on day three (23 Jan).

III.  Event probabilities 21 Jan-23 Jan
Class M    01/01/01
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           20 Jan 071
Predicted   21 Jan-23 Jan 070/070/070
90 Day Mean        20 Jan 071

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 19 Jan  002/002
Estimated Afr/Ap 20 Jan  003/004
Predicted Afr/Ap 21 Jan-23 Jan  009/010-009/008-006/005

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 21 Jan-23 Jan
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                30/20/10
Minor Storm           10/05/01
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                15/15/15
Minor Storm           30/25/20
Major-severe storm    40/25/15