:Product: 0123RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2020 Jan 23 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 23 Issued at 2200Z on 23 Jan 2020

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 22/2100Z to
23/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24
hours. There are currently 0 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low
on days one, two, and three (24 Jan, 25 Jan, 26 Jan).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 22/2100Z to 23/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed reached a peak of 385 km/s at 22/2314Z. Total IMF reached 7
nT at 22/2354Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -6 nT at
22/2325Z.  Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached
a peak level of 143 pfu.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet levels on days one, two, and three (24 Jan, 25 Jan, 26
Jan).

III.  Event probabilities 24 Jan-26 Jan
Class M    01/01/01
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           23 Jan 071
Predicted   24 Jan-26 Jan 072/072/072
90 Day Mean        23 Jan 071

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 22 Jan  004/004
Estimated Afr/Ap 23 Jan  006/006
Predicted Afr/Ap 24 Jan-26 Jan  006/005-006/005-006/005

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 24 Jan-26 Jan
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                10/10/10
Minor Storm           01/01/01
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                15/15/15
Minor Storm           20/20/20
Major-severe storm    15/15/15