:Product: 0126RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2020 Jan 26 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 26 Issued at 2200Z on 26 Jan 2020

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 25/2100Z to
26/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24
hours. There are currently 1 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low
with a slight chance for a C-class flare on days one, two, and three (27
Jan, 28 Jan, 29 Jan).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 25/2100Z to 26/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed
reached a peak of 346 km/s at 25/2323Z. Total IMF reached 5 nT at
26/1524Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -4 nT at
26/1525Z.  Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached
a peak level of 136 pfu.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet levels on days one and two (27 Jan, 28 Jan) and quiet to
unsettled levels on day three (29 Jan).

III.  Event probabilities 27 Jan-29 Jan
Class M    01/01/01
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           26 Jan 075
Predicted   27 Jan-29 Jan 075/075/075
90 Day Mean        26 Jan 071

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 25 Jan  003/001
Estimated Afr/Ap 26 Jan  004/004
Predicted Afr/Ap 27 Jan-29 Jan  006/005-006/005-007/010

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 27 Jan-29 Jan
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                10/10/20
Minor Storm           01/01/05
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                15/15/15
Minor Storm           20/20/30
Major-severe storm    15/15/25