:Product: 0219RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2020 Feb 19 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 50 Issued at 2200Z on 19 Feb 2020

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 18/2100Z to
19/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24
hours. There are currently 0 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low
on days one, two, and three (20 Feb, 21 Feb, 22 Feb).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 18/2100Z to 19/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to minor storm levels for the past 24 hours.
Solar wind speed reached a peak of 509 km/s at 19/0856Z. Total IMF
reached 11 nT at 19/0332Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached
-9 nT at 19/0302Z.  Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit
reached a peak level of 327 pfu.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at unsettled to active levels on day one (20 Feb) and quiet levels
on days two and three (21 Feb, 22 Feb).

III.  Event probabilities 20 Feb-22 Feb
Class M    01/01/01
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           19 Feb 071
Predicted   20 Feb-22 Feb 070/070/070
90 Day Mean        19 Feb 071

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 18 Feb  011/011
Estimated Afr/Ap 19 Feb  015/022
Predicted Afr/Ap 20 Feb-22 Feb  015/010-007/008-006/005

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 20 Feb-22 Feb
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                40/20/10
Minor Storm           15/05/01
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                10/15/15
Minor Storm           25/25/20
Major-severe storm    55/25/10