:Product: 0220RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2020 Feb 20 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 51 Issued at 2200Z on 20 Feb 2020

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 19/2100Z to
20/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24
hours. There are currently 0 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low
on days one, two, and three (21 Feb, 22 Feb, 23 Feb).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 19/2100Z to 20/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed reached a peak of 456 km/s at 19/2108Z. Total IMF reached 7
nT at 20/2100Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -5 nT at
20/2100Z.  Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached
a peak level of 2786 pfu.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet levels on days one, two, and three (21 Feb, 22 Feb, 23
Feb).

III.  Event probabilities 21 Feb-23 Feb
Class M    01/01/01
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           20 Feb 071
Predicted   21 Feb-23 Feb 071/071/071
90 Day Mean        20 Feb 071

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 19 Feb  010/011
Estimated Afr/Ap 20 Feb  007/008
Predicted Afr/Ap 21 Feb-23 Feb  006/005-006/005-005/005

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 21 Feb-23 Feb
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                10/10/10
Minor Storm           01/01/01
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                15/15/15
Minor Storm           20/20/20
Major-severe storm    10/10/10