:Product: 0222RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2020 Feb 22 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 53 Issued at 2200Z on 22 Feb 2020

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 21/2100Z to
22/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24
hours. There are currently 0 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low
on days one, two, and three (23 Feb, 24 Feb, 25 Feb).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 21/2100Z to 22/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed reached a peak of 547 km/s at 22/0849Z. Total IMF reached 5
nT at 22/0605Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -3 nT at
22/0028Z.  Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached
a peak level of 2370 pfu.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to unsettled levels on days one, two, and three (23 Feb,
24 Feb, 25 Feb).

III.  Event probabilities 23 Feb-25 Feb
Class M    01/01/01
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           22 Feb 072
Predicted   23 Feb-25 Feb 071/071/071
90 Day Mean        22 Feb 071

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 21 Feb  010/008
Estimated Afr/Ap 22 Feb  009/008
Predicted Afr/Ap 23 Feb-25 Feb  008/008-007/008-007/008

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 23 Feb-25 Feb
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                20/20/20
Minor Storm           05/05/05
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                15/15/20
Minor Storm           25/25/30
Major-severe storm    25/25/25