:Product: 0229RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2020 Feb 29 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 60 Issued at 2200Z on 29 Feb 2020

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 28/2100Z to
29/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24
hours. There are currently 0 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low
on days one, two, and three (01 Mar, 02 Mar, 03 Mar).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 28/2100Z to 29/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed reached a peak of 787 km/s at 29/0641Z. Total IMF reached 9
nT at 29/1526Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -6 nT at
29/1141Z.  Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached
a peak level of 684 pfu.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to active levels on days one and two (01 Mar, 02 Mar) and
quiet to unsettled levels on day three (03 Mar).

III.  Event probabilities 01 Mar-03 Mar
Class M    01/01/01
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           29 Feb 070
Predicted   01 Mar-03 Mar 071/071/071
90 Day Mean        29 Feb 071

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 28 Feb  004/004
Estimated Afr/Ap 29 Feb  008/010
Predicted Afr/Ap 01 Mar-03 Mar  011/012-010/012-007/008

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 01 Mar-03 Mar
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                25/25/15
Minor Storm           10/10/05
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                15/15/15
Minor Storm           25/25/25
Major-severe storm    35/35/20