:Product: 0305RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2020 Mar 05 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 65 Issued at 2200Z on 05 Mar 2020

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 04/2100Z to
05/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24
hours. There are currently 0 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low
on days one, two, and three (06 Mar, 07 Mar, 08 Mar).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 04/2100Z to 05/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed
reached a peak of 384 km/s at 04/2142Z. Total IMF reached 7 nT at
05/1138Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -2 nT at
05/0909Z.  Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached
a peak level of 264 pfu.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to unsettled levels on days one, two, and three (06 Mar,
07 Mar, 08 Mar).

III.  Event probabilities 06 Mar-08 Mar
Class M    01/01/01
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           05 Mar 070
Predicted   06 Mar-08 Mar 070/070/070
90 Day Mean        05 Mar 071

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 04 Mar  004/006
Estimated Afr/Ap 05 Mar  005/006
Predicted Afr/Ap 06 Mar-08 Mar  006/005-008/008-008/008

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 06 Mar-08 Mar
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                15/20/20
Minor Storm           01/05/05
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                15/20/20
Minor Storm           25/30/30
Major-severe storm    20/25/25