:Product: 0307RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2020 Mar 07 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 67 Issued at 2200Z on 07 Mar 2020

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 06/2100Z to
07/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24
hours. There are currently 0 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low
on days one, two, and three (08 Mar, 09 Mar, 10 Mar).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 06/2100Z to 07/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed
reached a peak of 395 km/s at 07/1200Z. Total IMF reached 7 nT at
06/2246Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -4 nT at
07/0621Z.  Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached
a peak level of 209 pfu.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet levels on days one, two, and three (08 Mar, 09 Mar, 10
Mar).

III.  Event probabilities 08 Mar-10 Mar
Class M    01/01/01
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           07 Mar 070
Predicted   08 Mar-10 Mar 070/070/070
90 Day Mean        07 Mar 071

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 06 Mar  004/003
Estimated Afr/Ap 07 Mar  006/007
Predicted Afr/Ap 08 Mar-10 Mar  006/005-006/005-007/008

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 08 Mar-10 Mar
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                10/10/25
Minor Storm           01/01/05
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                15/15/15
Minor Storm           25/25/30
Major-severe storm    20/20/30