:Product: 0313RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2020 Mar 13 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 73 Issued at 2200Z on 13 Mar 2020

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 12/2100Z to
13/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24
hours. There are currently 0 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low
on days one, two, and three (14 Mar, 15 Mar, 16 Mar).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 12/2100Z to 13/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed reached a peak of 465 km/s at 13/2038Z. Total IMF reached 7
nT at 13/0247Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -6 nT at
13/0722Z.  Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached
a peak level of 129 pfu.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet levels on days one, two, and three (14 Mar, 15 Mar, 16
Mar).

III.  Event probabilities 14 Mar-16 Mar
Class M    01/01/01
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           13 Mar 069
Predicted   14 Mar-16 Mar 070/070/070
90 Day Mean        13 Mar 071

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 12 Mar  007/006
Estimated Afr/Ap 13 Mar  008/008
Predicted Afr/Ap 14 Mar-16 Mar  006/005-006/005-005/005

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 14 Mar-16 Mar
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                10/10/10
Minor Storm           01/01/01
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                15/15/15
Minor Storm           20/20/20
Major-severe storm    15/15/15