:Product: 0320RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2020 Mar 20 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 80 Issued at 2200Z on 20 Mar 2020

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 19/2100Z to
20/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24
hours. There are currently 0 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low
on days one, two, and three (21 Mar, 22 Mar, 23 Mar).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 19/2100Z to 20/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed reached a peak of 498 km/s at 19/2255Z. Total IMF reached 5
nT at 20/1706Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -4 nT at
20/2038Z.  Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached
a peak level of 421 pfu.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to unsettled levels on day one (21 Mar) and quiet levels
on days two and three (22 Mar, 23 Mar).

III.  Event probabilities 21 Mar-23 Mar
Class M    01/01/01
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           20 Mar 072
Predicted   21 Mar-23 Mar 072/072/072
90 Day Mean        20 Mar 071

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 19 Mar  007/010
Estimated Afr/Ap 20 Mar  005/006
Predicted Afr/Ap 21 Mar-23 Mar  007/008-006/005-005/005

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 21 Mar-23 Mar
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                20/10/10
Minor Storm           05/01/01
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                15/15/15
Minor Storm           30/25/20
Major-severe storm    25/20/20