:Product: 0331RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2020 Mar 31 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 91 Issued at 2200Z on 31 Mar 2020

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 30/2100Z to
31/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24
hours. There are currently 1 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low
on days one, two, and three (01 Apr, 02 Apr, 03 Apr).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 30/2100Z to 31/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to active levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed reached a peak of 534 km/s at 31/1355Z. Total IMF reached 7
nT at 31/0548Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -6 nT at
31/0525Z.  Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached
a peak level of 391 pfu.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to active levels on day one (01 Apr) and quiet to
unsettled levels on days two and three (02 Apr, 03 Apr).

III.  Event probabilities 01 Apr-03 Apr
Class M    01/01/01
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           31 Mar 070
Predicted   01 Apr-03 Apr 070/070/070
90 Day Mean        31 Mar 071

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 30 Mar  008/010
Estimated Afr/Ap 31 Mar  013/016
Predicted Afr/Ap 01 Apr-03 Apr  010/012-007/008-008/008

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 01 Apr-03 Apr
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                30/20/15
Minor Storm           10/05/05
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                15/15/20
Minor Storm           30/25/25
Major-severe storm    40/30/20