:Product: 0408RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2020 Apr 08 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 99 Issued at 2200Z on 08 Apr 2020

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 07/2100Z to
08/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24
hours. There are currently 0 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low
on days one, two, and three (09 Apr, 10 Apr, 11 Apr).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 07/2100Z to 08/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed reached a peak of 513 km/s at 08/1906Z. Total IMF reached 12
nT at 08/1338Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -9 nT at
08/0227Z.  Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached
a peak level of 371 pfu.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to unsettled levels on days one and two (09 Apr, 10 Apr)
and quiet to active levels on day three (11 Apr).

III.  Event probabilities 09 Apr-11 Apr
Class M    01/01/01
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           08 Apr 070
Predicted   09 Apr-11 Apr 070/070/070
90 Day Mean        08 Apr 071

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 07 Apr  003/004
Estimated Afr/Ap 08 Apr  012/014
Predicted Afr/Ap 09 Apr-11 Apr  009/008-007/008-010/012

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 09 Apr-11 Apr
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                20/20/35
Minor Storm           05/05/10
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                15/15/15
Minor Storm           30/30/30
Major-severe storm    25/25/45