:Product: 0410RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2020 Apr 10 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 101 Issued at 2200Z on 10 Apr 2020

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 09/2100Z to
10/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24
hours. There are currently 0 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low
on days one, two, and three (11 Apr, 12 Apr, 13 Apr).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 09/2100Z to 10/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed
reached a peak of 408 km/s at 10/1336Z. Total IMF reached 6 nT at
10/0726Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -5 nT at
10/1449Z.  Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached
a peak level of 249 pfu.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to active levels on day one (11 Apr) and quiet levels on
days two and three (12 Apr, 13 Apr).

III.  Event probabilities 11 Apr-13 Apr
Class M    01/01/01
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           10 Apr 069
Predicted   11 Apr-13 Apr 069/068/068
90 Day Mean        10 Apr 071

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 09 Apr  005/004
Estimated Afr/Ap 10 Apr  006/006
Predicted Afr/Ap 11 Apr-13 Apr  010/012-006/005-006/005

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 11 Apr-13 Apr
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                35/10/10
Minor Storm           10/01/01
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                15/15/15
Minor Storm           30/20/20
Major-severe storm    45/10/10