:Product: 0430RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2020 Apr 30 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 121 Issued at 2200Z on 30 Apr 2020

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 29/2100Z to
30/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24
hours. There are currently 3 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low
with a slight chance for a C-class flare on days one, two, and three (01
May, 02 May, 03 May).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 29/2100Z to 30/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed
reached a peak of 333 km/s at 29/2210Z. Total IMF reached 5 nT at
30/2051Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -2 nT at
29/2214Z.  Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached
a peak level of 179 pfu.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet levels on days one and two (01 May, 02 May) and quiet to
unsettled levels on day three (03 May).

III.  Event probabilities 01 May-03 May
Class M    01/01/01
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           30 Apr 070
Predicted   01 May-03 May 070/070/070
90 Day Mean        30 Apr 070

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 29 Apr  004/002
Estimated Afr/Ap 30 Apr  002/003
Predicted Afr/Ap 01 May-03 May  006/005-006/005-007/008

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 01 May-03 May
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                10/10/15
Minor Storm           01/01/05
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                15/15/15
Minor Storm           20/20/25
Major-severe storm    10/10/25