:Product: 0517RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2020 May 17 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 138 Issued at 2200Z on 17 May 2020

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 16/2100Z to
17/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24
hours. There are currently 0 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low
on days one, two, and three (18 May, 19 May, 20 May).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 16/2100Z to 17/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed
reached a peak of 321 km/s at 16/2148Z.  Electrons greater than 2 MeV at
geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 194 pfu.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to unsettled levels on days one, two, and three (18 May,
19 May, 20 May).

III.  Event probabilities 18 May-20 May
Class M    01/01/01
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           17 May 070
Predicted   18 May-20 May 070/070/070
90 Day Mean        17 May 070

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 16 May  004/004
Estimated Afr/Ap 17 May  003/004
Predicted Afr/Ap 18 May-20 May  005/005-008/008-008/008

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 18 May-20 May
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                10/15/15
Minor Storm           01/05/05
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                15/15/15
Minor Storm           20/25/25
Major-severe storm    10/25/25