:Product: 0531RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2020 May 31 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 152 Issued at 2200Z on 31 May 2020

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 30/2100Z to
31/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24
hours. There are currently 0 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low
with a slight chance for a C-class flare on days one, two, and three (01
Jun, 02 Jun, 03 Jun).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 30/2100Z to 31/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed reached a peak of 425 km/s at 31/0029Z. Total IMF reached 7
nT at 30/2105Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -6 nT at
30/2126Z.  Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached
a peak level of 105 pfu.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet levels on days one, two, and three (01 Jun, 02 Jun, 03
Jun).

III.  Event probabilities 01 Jun-03 Jun
Class M    01/01/01
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           31 May 071
Predicted   01 Jun-03 Jun 071/071/071
90 Day Mean        31 May 070

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 30 May  013/015
Estimated Afr/Ap 31 May  005/005
Predicted Afr/Ap 01 Jun-03 Jun  006/005-006/005-005/005

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 01 Jun-03 Jun
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                05/05/05
Minor Storm           01/01/01
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                15/15/15
Minor Storm           15/15/15
Major-severe storm    05/05/05