:Product: 0609RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2020 Jun 09 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 161 Issued at 2200Z on 09 Jun 2020

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 08/2100Z to
09/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24
hours. There are currently 1 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low
with a slight chance for a C-class flare on days one, two, and three (10
Jun, 11 Jun, 12 Jun).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 08/2100Z to 09/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed
reached a peak of 480 km/s at 09/2051Z. Total IMF reached 7 nT at
09/1805Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -5 nT at
09/1800Z.  Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached
a peak level of 178 pfu.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet levels on days one, two, and three (10 Jun, 11 Jun, 12
Jun).

III.  Event probabilities 10 Jun-12 Jun
Class M    01/01/01
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           09 Jun 072
Predicted   10 Jun-12 Jun 072/072/070
90 Day Mean        09 Jun 070

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 08 Jun  006/006
Estimated Afr/Ap 09 Jun  004/005
Predicted Afr/Ap 10 Jun-12 Jun  005/005-005/005-005/005

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 10 Jun-12 Jun
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                10/10/10
Minor Storm           01/01/01
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                20/20/15
Minor Storm           20/20/20
Major-severe storm    10/10/10