:Product: 0617RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2020 Jun 17 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 169 Issued at 2200Z on 17 Jun 2020

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 16/2100Z to
17/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24
hours. There are currently 0 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low
on days one, two, and three (18 Jun, 19 Jun, 20 Jun).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 16/2100Z to 17/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed
reached a peak of approximately 340 km/s at 17/0709Z. Total IMF reached
5 nT at 17/0021Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -5 nT at
17/1308Z.  Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached
a peak level of 165 pfu.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet levels on days one, two, and three (18 Jun, 19 Jun, 20
Jun).

III.  Event probabilities 18 Jun-20 Jun
Class M    01/01/01
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           17 Jun 069
Predicted   18 Jun-20 Jun 070/070/070
90 Day Mean        17 Jun 070

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 16 Jun  007/004
Estimated Afr/Ap 17 Jun  007/008
Predicted Afr/Ap 18 Jun-20 Jun  005/005-006/005-006/005

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 18 Jun-20 Jun
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                10/05/05
Minor Storm           01/01/01
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                20/15/15
Minor Storm           20/15/15
Major-severe storm    10/10/10