:Product: 0723RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2020 Jul 23 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 205 Issued at 2200Z on 23 Jul 2020

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 22/2100Z to
23/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24
hours. There are currently 1 numbered sunspot region on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low
on days one, two, and three (24 Jul, 25 Jul, 26 Jul).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 22/2100Z to 23/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed
reached a peak of 322 km/s at 23/1000Z.  Electrons greater than 2 MeV at
geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 232 pfu.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to unsettled levels on days one and three (24 Jul, 26
Jul) and quiet to active levels on day two (25 Jul).

III.  Event probabilities 24 Jul-26 Jul
Class M    01/01/01
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           23 Jul 070
Predicted   24 Jul-26 Jul 070/070/070
90 Day Mean        23 Jul 069

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 22 Jul  005/004
Estimated Afr/Ap 23 Jul  004/005
Predicted Afr/Ap 24 Jul-26 Jul  007/008-011/012-008/008

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 24 Jul-26 Jul
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                15/35/15
Minor Storm           01/15/05
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                15/10/15
Minor Storm           25/25/25
Major-severe storm    20/50/20