:Product: 0728RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2020 Jul 28 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 210 Issued at 2200Z on 28 Jul 2020

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 27/2100Z to
28/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24
hours. There are currently 1 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low
on days one, two, and three (29 Jul, 30 Jul, 31 Jul).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 27/2100Z to 28/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed
reached a peak of 443 km/s at 27/2207Z. Total IMF reached 5 nT at
27/2122Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -4 nT at
27/2200Z.  Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached
a peak level of 323 pfu.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet levels on days one, two, and three (29 Jul, 30 Jul, 31
Jul).

III.  Event probabilities 29 Jul-31 Jul
Class M    01/01/01
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           28 Jul 072
Predicted   29 Jul-31 Jul 070/070/072
90 Day Mean        28 Jul 069

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 27 Jul  005/004
Estimated Afr/Ap 28 Jul  004/005
Predicted Afr/Ap 29 Jul-31 Jul  005/005-005/005-006/005

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 29 Jul-31 Jul
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                10/10/10
Minor Storm           01/01/01
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                20/20/20
Minor Storm           20/20/20
Major-severe storm    10/10/10