:Product: 0803RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2020 Aug 03 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 216 Issued at 2200Z on 03 Aug 2020

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 02/2100Z to
03/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24
hours. There are currently 2 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low
on days one, two, and three (04 Aug, 05 Aug, 06 Aug).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 02/2100Z to 03/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to active levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed reached a peak of 722 km/s at 03/1612Z. Total IMF reached 10
nT at 02/2203Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -8 nT at
03/0208Z.  Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached
a peak level of 169 pfu.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to unsettled levels on days one and two (04 Aug, 05 Aug)
and quiet levels on day three (06 Aug).

III.  Event probabilities 04 Aug-06 Aug
Class M    01/01/01
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           03 Aug 073
Predicted   04 Aug-06 Aug 072/072/072
90 Day Mean        03 Aug 070

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 02 Aug  009/009
Estimated Afr/Ap 03 Aug  011/013
Predicted Afr/Ap 04 Aug-06 Aug  009/010-007/008-005/005

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 04 Aug-06 Aug
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                20/20/10
Minor Storm           05/05/01
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                15/15/20
Minor Storm           25/25/20
Major-severe storm    30/25/10