:Product: 0805RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2020 Aug 05 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 218 Issued at 2200Z on 05 Aug 2020

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 04/2100Z to
05/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24
hours. There are currently 1 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low
with a slight chance for a C-class flare on day one (06 Aug) and
expected to be very low on days two and three (07 Aug, 08 Aug).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 04/2100Z to 05/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed
reached a peak of 618 km/s at 04/2202Z.  Electrons greater than 2 MeV at
geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 2815 pfu.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet levels on days one and two (06 Aug, 07 Aug) and quiet to
unsettled levels on day three (08 Aug).

III.  Event probabilities 06 Aug-08 Aug
Class M    01/01/01
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           05 Aug 073
Predicted   06 Aug-08 Aug 073/073/073
90 Day Mean        05 Aug 070

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 04 Aug  009/010
Estimated Afr/Ap 05 Aug  006/006
Predicted Afr/Ap 06 Aug-08 Aug  005/005-006/005-008/008

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 06 Aug-08 Aug
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                10/10/15
Minor Storm           01/01/05
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                20/20/20
Minor Storm           20/20/25
Major-severe storm    10/10/20