:Product: 0806RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2020 Aug 06 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 219 Issued at 2200Z on 06 Aug 2020

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 05/2100Z to
06/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24
hours. There are currently 1 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low
with a slight chance for a C-class flare on days one, two, and three (07
Aug, 08 Aug, 09 Aug).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 05/2100Z to 06/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed
reached a peak of 530 km/s at 06/1418Z. Total IMF reached 5 nT at
06/0239Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -4 nT at
06/0035Z.  Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached
a peak level of 1974 pfu.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet levels on days one and three (07 Aug, 09 Aug) and quiet
to unsettled levels on day two (08 Aug).

III.  Event probabilities 07 Aug-09 Aug
Class M    01/01/01
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           06 Aug 073
Predicted   07 Aug-09 Aug 073/073/073
90 Day Mean        06 Aug 070

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 05 Aug  006/005
Estimated Afr/Ap 06 Aug  004/005
Predicted Afr/Ap 07 Aug-09 Aug  006/005-008/008-006/005

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 07 Aug-09 Aug
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                10/15/10
Minor Storm           01/05/01
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                20/20/20
Minor Storm           20/25/20
Major-severe storm    10/20/10