:Product: 0817RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2020 Aug 17 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 230 Issued at 2200Z on 17 Aug 2020

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 16/2100Z to
17/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24
hours. There are currently 0 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low
on days one, two, and three (18 Aug, 19 Aug, 20 Aug).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 16/2100Z to 17/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed
reached a peak of 340 km/s at 17/0724Z. Total IMF reached 8 nT at
16/2102Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -3 nT at
17/0550Z.  Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached
a peak level of 415 pfu.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet levels on day one (18 Aug), quiet to unsettled levels on
day two (19 Aug) and quiet to active levels on day three (20 Aug).

III.  Event probabilities 18 Aug-20 Aug
Class M    01/01/01
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           17 Aug 071
Predicted   18 Aug-20 Aug 070/070/070
90 Day Mean        17 Aug 070

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 16 Aug  005/004
Estimated Afr/Ap 17 Aug  003/004
Predicted Afr/Ap 18 Aug-20 Aug  005/005-008/008-013/016

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 18 Aug-20 Aug
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                05/20/35
Minor Storm           01/05/15
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                15/15/10
Minor Storm           15/25/30
Major-severe storm    10/25/50