:Product: 0825RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2020 Aug 25 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 238 Issued at 2200Z on 25 Aug 2020

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 24/2100Z to
25/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24
hours. There are currently 0 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low
on days one, two, and three (26 Aug, 27 Aug, 28 Aug).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 24/2100Z to 25/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed
reached a peak of 376 km/s at 24/2221Z. Total IMF reached 6 nT at
25/0345Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -3 nT at
25/0806Z.  Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached
a peak level of 209 pfu.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to unsettled levels on day one (26 Aug) and quiet levels
on days two and three (27 Aug, 28 Aug).

III.  Event probabilities 26 Aug-28 Aug
Class M    01/01/01
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           25 Aug 071
Predicted   26 Aug-28 Aug 070/070/070
90 Day Mean        25 Aug 070

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 24 Aug  003/003
Estimated Afr/Ap 25 Aug  004/005
Predicted Afr/Ap 26 Aug-28 Aug  008/008-006/005-005/005

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 26 Aug-28 Aug
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                25/10/10
Minor Storm           05/01/01
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                15/20/20
Minor Storm           30/20/20
Major-severe storm    30/10/10