:Product: 0828RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2020 Aug 28 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 241 Issued at 2200Z on 28 Aug 2020

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 27/2100Z to
28/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24
hours. There are currently 0 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low
on days one, two, and three (29 Aug, 30 Aug, 31 Aug).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 27/2100Z to 28/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to minor storm levels for the past 24 hours.
Solar wind speed reached a peak of 496 km/s at 28/1731Z. Total IMF
reached 10 nT at 28/1548Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached
-8 nT at 28/1521Z.  Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit
reached a peak level of 161 pfu.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to active levels on days one, two, and three (29 Aug, 30
Aug, 31 Aug).

III.  Event probabilities 29 Aug-31 Aug
Class M    01/01/01
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           28 Aug 070
Predicted   29 Aug-31 Aug 070/070/070
90 Day Mean        28 Aug 070

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 27 Aug  007/008
Estimated Afr/Ap 28 Aug  008/011
Predicted Afr/Ap 29 Aug-31 Aug  011/012-010/012-013/012

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 29 Aug-31 Aug
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                40/40/40
Minor Storm           15/20/15
Major-severe storm    01/05/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                15/10/10
Minor Storm           30/25/30
Major-severe storm    50/60/50