:Product: 0905RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2020 Sep 05 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 249 Issued at 2200Z on 05 Sep 2020

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 04/2100Z to
05/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24
hours. There are currently 0 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low
on days one, two, and three (06 Sep, 07 Sep, 08 Sep).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 04/2100Z to 05/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed
reached a peak of 443 km/s at 05/1959Z. Total IMF reached 5 nT at
04/2244Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -4 nT at
05/1007Z.  Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached
a peak level of 3973 pfu.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet levels on days one, two, and three (06 Sep, 07 Sep, 08
Sep).

III.  Event probabilities 06 Sep-08 Sep
Class M    01/01/01
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           05 Sep 069
Predicted   06 Sep-08 Sep 070/070/070
90 Day Mean        05 Sep 070

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 04 Sep  009/008
Estimated Afr/Ap 05 Sep  006/006
Predicted Afr/Ap 06 Sep-08 Sep  006/005-006/005-006/005

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 06 Sep-08 Sep
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                15/15/15
Minor Storm           05/05/05
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                15/15/15
Minor Storm           20/20/20
Major-severe storm    20/20/20