:Product: 0917RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2020 Sep 17 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 261 Issued at 2200Z on 17 Sep 2020

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 16/2100Z to
17/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24
hours. There are currently 0 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low
on days one, two, and three (18 Sep, 19 Sep, 20 Sep).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 16/2100Z to 17/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed
reached a peak of 343 km/s at 17/0150Z. Total IMF reached 5 nT at
17/0134Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -4 nT at
17/0529Z.  Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached
a peak level of 192 pfu.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet levels on days one, two, and three (18 Sep, 19 Sep, 20
Sep).

III.  Event probabilities 18 Sep-20 Sep
Class M    01/01/01
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           17 Sep 070
Predicted   18 Sep-20 Sep 070/070/070
90 Day Mean        17 Sep 070

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 16 Sep  003/003
Estimated Afr/Ap 17 Sep  004/004
Predicted Afr/Ap 18 Sep-20 Sep  006/005-006/005-006/005

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 18 Sep-20 Sep
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                10/10/05
Minor Storm           01/01/01
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                15/15/15
Minor Storm           15/15/15
Major-severe storm    10/10/05