:Product: 0925RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2020 Sep 25 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 269 Issued at 2200Z on 25 Sep 2020

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 24/2100Z to
25/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24
hours. There are currently 1 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low
on days one, two, and three (26 Sep, 27 Sep, 28 Sep).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 24/2100Z to 25/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to minor storm levels for the past 24 hours.
Solar wind speed reached a peak of 544 km/s at 25/0916Z. Total IMF
reached 7 nT at 25/1417Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached
-6 nT at 25/2100Z.  Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit
reached a peak level of 6990 pfu.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to active levels on days one and two (26 Sep, 27 Sep) and
quiet to minor storm levels on day three (28 Sep).

III.  Event probabilities 26 Sep-28 Sep
Class M    01/01/01
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           25 Sep 073
Predicted   26 Sep-28 Sep 073/073/073
90 Day Mean        25 Sep 070

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 24 Sep  011/018
Estimated Afr/Ap 25 Sep  015/018
Predicted Afr/Ap 26 Sep-28 Sep  012/012-011/012-011/016

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 26 Sep-28 Sep
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                35/35/40
Minor Storm           20/20/25
Major-severe storm    05/05/05
B.  High Latitudes
Active                10/10/10
Minor Storm           30/30/25
Major-severe storm    50/50/60