:Product: 1101RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2020 Nov 01 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 306 Issued at 2200Z on 01 Nov 2020

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 31/2100Z to
01/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24
hours. There are currently 1 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low
on days one, two, and three (02 Nov, 03 Nov, 04 Nov).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 31/2100Z to 01/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed reached a peak of 423 km/s at 01/0006Z. Total IMF reached 8
nT at 01/1722Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -6 nT at
01/1232Z.  Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached
a peak level of 1634 pfu.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to unsettled levels on day one (02 Nov) and quiet levels
on days two and three (03 Nov, 04 Nov).

III.  Event probabilities 02 Nov-04 Nov
Class M    01/01/01
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           01 Nov 077
Predicted   02 Nov-04 Nov 074/072/072
90 Day Mean        01 Nov 072

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 31 Oct  006/008
Estimated Afr/Ap 01 Nov  008/011
Predicted Afr/Ap 02 Nov-04 Nov  008/008-006/005-006/005

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 02 Nov-04 Nov
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                25/15/15
Minor Storm           05/05/05
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                15/15/15
Minor Storm           30/25/25
Major-severe storm    30/25/25