:Product: 1104RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2020 Nov 04 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 309 Issued at 2200Z on 04 Nov 2020

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 03/2100Z to
04/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24
hours. The largest solar event of the period was a C1 event observed at
04/0442Z from Region 2781 (S25E55). There are currently 1 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is likely to be low with a
slight chance for an M-class flare on days one, two, and three (05 Nov,
06 Nov, 07 Nov).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 03/2100Z to 04/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed
reached a peak of 370 km/s at 04/0544Z.  Electrons greater than 2 MeV at
geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 955 pfu.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet levels on day one (05 Nov) and quiet to unsettled levels
on days two and three (06 Nov, 07 Nov).

III.  Event probabilities 05 Nov-07 Nov
Class M    10/10/10
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           04 Nov 088
Predicted   05 Nov-07 Nov 088/088/088
90 Day Mean        04 Nov 073

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 03 Nov  002/001
Estimated Afr/Ap 04 Nov  003/004
Predicted Afr/Ap 05 Nov-07 Nov  006/005-007/008-008/008

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 05 Nov-07 Nov
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                10/15/15
Minor Storm           01/05/05
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                20/15/15
Minor Storm           20/25/25
Major-severe storm    10/25/25