:Product: 1110RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2020 Nov 10 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 315 Issued at 2200Z on 10 Nov 2020

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 09/2100Z to
10/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24
hours. The largest solar event of the period was a C1 event observed at
10/1946Z from Region 2781 (S23W23). There are currently 1 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low
with a chance for a C-class flares on days one, two, and three (11 Nov,
12 Nov, 13 Nov).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 09/2100Z to 10/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed
reached a peak of 374 km/s at 09/2139Z. Total IMF reached 5 nT at
09/2125Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached 0 nT at
10/0554Z.  Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached
a peak level of 973 pfu.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet levels on days one, two, and three (11 Nov, 12 Nov, 13
Nov).

III.  Event probabilities 11 Nov-13 Nov
Class M    01/01/01
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           10 Nov 087
Predicted   11 Nov-13 Nov 088/088/088
90 Day Mean        10 Nov 074

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 09 Nov  000/001
Estimated Afr/Ap 10 Nov  002/003
Predicted Afr/Ap 11 Nov-13 Nov  006/005-006/005-005/005

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 11 Nov-13 Nov
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                10/10/10
Minor Storm           01/01/01
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                20/15/15
Minor Storm           20/20/20
Major-severe storm    10/20/20