:Product: 1114RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2020 Nov 14 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 319 Issued at 2200Z on 14 Nov 2020

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 13/2100Z to
14/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24
hours. There are currently 1 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low
with a slight chance for a C-class flare on days one, two, and three (15
Nov, 16 Nov, 17 Nov).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 13/2100Z to 14/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed
reached a peak of 385 km/s at 13/2103Z.  Electrons greater than 2 MeV at
geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 302 pfu.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to unsettled levels on day one (15 Nov) and quiet levels
on days two and three (16 Nov, 17 Nov).

III.  Event probabilities 15 Nov-17 Nov
Class M    01/01/01
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           14 Nov 080
Predicted   15 Nov-17 Nov 080/078/075
90 Day Mean        14 Nov 075

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 13 Nov  002/002
Estimated Afr/Ap 14 Nov  003/005
Predicted Afr/Ap 15 Nov-17 Nov  007/008-006/005-005/005

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 15 Nov-17 Nov
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                15/10/10
Minor Storm           05/01/01
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                15/20/20
Minor Storm           25/20/20
Major-severe storm    20/10/10