:Product: 1123RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2020 Nov 23 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 328 Issued at 2200Z on 23 Nov 2020

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 22/2100Z to
23/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24
hours. There are currently 3 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low
with a chance for a C-class flares and a slight chance for an M-class
flare on day one (24 Nov) and likely to be low with a slight chance for
an M-class flare on days two and three (25 Nov, 26 Nov).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 22/2100Z to 23/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed reached a peak of 619 km/s at 23/0245Z.  Electrons greater
than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 2400 pfu.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to active levels on days one and two (24 Nov, 25 Nov) and
quiet to unsettled levels on day three (26 Nov).

III.  Event probabilities 24 Nov-26 Nov
Class M    10/10/15
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           23 Nov 096
Predicted   24 Nov-26 Nov 098/100/100
90 Day Mean        23 Nov 076

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 22 Nov  019/024
Estimated Afr/Ap 23 Nov  009/010
Predicted Afr/Ap 24 Nov-26 Nov  009/010-009/012-007/010

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 24 Nov-26 Nov
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                25/30/25
Minor Storm           10/15/10
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                15/15/15
Minor Storm           30/30/30
Major-severe storm    40/45/40