:Product: 1125RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2020 Nov 25 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 330 Issued at 2200Z on 25 Nov 2020

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 24/2100Z to
25/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24
hours. The largest solar event of the period was a C3 event observed at
25/0402Z from Region 2786 (S17E53). There are currently 3 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low
with a chance for a C-class flares on days one, two, and three (26 Nov,
27 Nov, 28 Nov).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 24/2100Z to 25/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed reached a peak of 420 km/s at 24/2225Z. Total IMF reached 5
nT at 25/1619Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -4 nT at
25/1604Z.  Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached
a peak level of 2329 pfu.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to unsettled levels on days one and two (26 Nov, 27 Nov)
and quiet levels on day three (28 Nov).

III.  Event probabilities 26 Nov-28 Nov
Class M    05/05/05
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           25 Nov 104
Predicted   26 Nov-28 Nov 105/105/105
90 Day Mean        25 Nov 076

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 24 Nov  004/004
Estimated Afr/Ap 25 Nov  007/007
Predicted Afr/Ap 26 Nov-28 Nov  007/008-008/010-005/008

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 26 Nov-28 Nov
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                25/20/10
Minor Storm           10/05/01
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                15/15/20
Minor Storm           30/25/20
Major-severe storm    40/30/10