:Product: 1204RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2020 Dec 04 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 339 Issued at 2200Z on 04 Dec 2020

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 03/2100Z to
04/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest flare was a C1 at 03/2359Z from Region 2790. There are
currently 3 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low
with a chance for a C-class flares on day one (05 Dec) and expected to
be very low with a slight chance for a C-class flare on days two and
three (06 Dec, 07 Dec).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 03/2100Z to 04/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed
reached a peak of 449 km/s at 03/2330Z. Total IMF reached 7 nT at
04/1157Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -3 nT at
04/1644Z.  Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached
a peak level of 553 pfu.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet levels on days one, two, and three (05 Dec, 06 Dec, 07
Dec).

III.  Event probabilities 05 Dec-07 Dec
Class M    05/01/01
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           04 Dec 096
Predicted   05 Dec-07 Dec 094/092/088
90 Day Mean        04 Dec 080

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 03 Dec  001/001
Estimated Afr/Ap 04 Dec  002/002
Predicted Afr/Ap 05 Dec-07 Dec  006/005-006/005-006/005

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 05 Dec-07 Dec
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                10/10/10
Minor Storm           01/01/01
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                20/20/20
Minor Storm           20/20/20
Major-severe storm    10/10/10