:Product: 1212RSGA.txt :Issued: 2020 Dec 12 2200 UTC # Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, # Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force. # Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast SDF Number 347 Issued at 2200Z on 12 Dec 2020 IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 11/2100Z to 12/2100Z: Solar activity has been at high levels for the past 24 hours. There are currently 2 numbered sunspot regions on the disk. IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low with a slight chance for a C-class flare on days one, two, and three (13 Dec, 14 Dec, 15 Dec). IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 11/2100Z to 12/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 516 km/s at 12/0504Z. Total IMF reached 5 nT at 12/0310Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -4 nT at 12/1925Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 286 pfu. IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels on day one (13 Dec) and quiet levels on days two and three (14 Dec, 15 Dec). III. Event probabilities 13 Dec-15 Dec Class M 01/01/01 Class X 01/01/01 Proton 01/01/01 PCAF green IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux Observed 12 Dec 082 Predicted 13 Dec-15 Dec 082/082/082 90 Day Mean 12 Dec 082 V. Geomagnetic A Indices Observed Afr/Ap 11 Dec 004/004 Estimated Afr/Ap 12 Dec 006/007 Predicted Afr/Ap 13 Dec-15 Dec 008/008-006/005-006/005 VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 13 Dec-15 Dec A. Middle Latitudes Active 20/10/10 Minor Storm 05/01/01 Major-severe storm 01/01/01 B. High Latitudes Active 15/20/20 Minor Storm 30/20/20 Major-severe storm 30/10/10