:Product: 1217RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2020 Dec 17 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 352 Issued at 2200Z on 17 Dec 2020

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 16/2100Z to
17/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24
hours. There are currently 1 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low
with a slight chance for a C-class flare on days one, two, and three (18
Dec, 19 Dec, 20 Dec).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 16/2100Z to 17/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed
reached a peak of 292 km/s at 17/1810Z. Total IMF reached 6 nT at
16/2318Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -3 nT at
17/1432Z.  Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached
a peak level of 239 pfu.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet levels on days one, two, and three (18 Dec, 19 Dec, 20
Dec).

III.  Event probabilities 18 Dec-20 Dec
Class M    01/01/01
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           17 Dec 082
Predicted   18 Dec-20 Dec 082/082/082
90 Day Mean        17 Dec 082

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 16 Dec  003/002
Estimated Afr/Ap 17 Dec  004/004
Predicted Afr/Ap 18 Dec-20 Dec  005/005-005/005-006/005

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 18 Dec-20 Dec
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                10/10/10
Minor Storm           01/01/01
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                20/20/20
Minor Storm           20/20/20
Major-severe storm    10/10/10