:Product: 1223RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2020 Dec 23 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 358 Issued at 2200Z on 23 Dec 2020

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 22/2100Z to
23/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24
hours. There are currently 2 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low
with a slight chance for a C-class flare on days one, two, and three (24
Dec, 25 Dec, 26 Dec).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 22/2100Z to 23/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to active levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed reached a peak of 644 km/s at 23/1007Z. Total IMF reached 7
nT at 23/0346Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -6 nT at
23/0223Z.  Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached
a peak level of 550 pfu.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to minor storm levels on day one (24 Dec), quiet to
active levels on day two (25 Dec) and quiet to unsettled levels on day
three (26 Dec).

III.  Event probabilities 24 Dec-26 Dec
Class M    01/01/01
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           23 Dec 086
Predicted   24 Dec-26 Dec 086/088/088
90 Day Mean        23 Dec 083

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 22 Dec  011/010
Estimated Afr/Ap 23 Dec  015/016
Predicted Afr/Ap 24 Dec-26 Dec  018/022-011/015-008/008

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 24 Dec-26 Dec
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                40/30/20
Minor Storm           30/15/05
Major-severe storm    10/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                05/15/15
Minor Storm           25/30/25
Major-severe storm    65/45/25