:Product: 1224RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2020 Dec 24 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 359 Issued at 2200Z on 24 Dec 2020

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 23/2100Z to
24/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24
hours. There are currently 2 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low
with a slight chance for a C-class flare on days one, two, and three (25
Dec, 26 Dec, 27 Dec).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 23/2100Z to 24/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed reached a peak of 590 km/s at 24/1237Z. Total IMF reached 5
nT at 24/0506Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -4 nT at
24/1039Z.  Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached
a peak level of 1539 pfu.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to active levels on day one (25 Dec), quiet to unsettled
levels on day two (26 Dec) and quiet levels on day three (27 Dec).

III.  Event probabilities 25 Dec-27 Dec
Class M    01/01/01
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           24 Dec 087
Predicted   25 Dec-27 Dec 088/088/088
90 Day Mean        24 Dec 083

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 23 Dec  011/011
Estimated Afr/Ap 24 Dec  011/016
Predicted Afr/Ap 25 Dec-27 Dec  011/015-008/008-005/005

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 25 Dec-27 Dec
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                30/20/10
Minor Storm           15/05/01
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                15/15/15
Minor Storm           30/25/20
Major-severe storm    45/25/10