:Product: 1229RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2020 Dec 29 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 364 Issued at 2200Z on 29 Dec 2020

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 28/2100Z to
29/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24
hours. There are currently 2 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low
with a slight chance for a C-class flare on days one, two, and three (30
Dec, 31 Dec, 01 Jan).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 28/2100Z to 29/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed reached a peak of 541 km/s at 29/1343Z. Total IMF reached 7
nT at 29/1933Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -6 nT at
29/2002Z.  Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached
a peak level of 777 pfu.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet levels on days one, two, and three (30 Dec, 31 Dec, 01
Jan).

III.  Event probabilities 30 Dec-01 Jan
Class M    01/01/01
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           29 Dec 084
Predicted   30 Dec-01 Jan 085/085/085
90 Day Mean        29 Dec 084

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 28 Dec  006/005
Estimated Afr/Ap 29 Dec  005/007
Predicted Afr/Ap 30 Dec-01 Jan  005/005-006/005-005/005

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 30 Dec-01 Jan
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                10/10/10
Minor Storm           01/01/01
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                20/15/15
Minor Storm           20/20/20
Major-severe storm    10/10/10